Structure: Concepts, Causes & Hierarchies

The Bento Provenance Project. Solving the Mystery of the Two Peaks told Chibany what arrives — a 70/30 mixture of tonkatsu and hamburger. This Part is about the rules behind it: which concepts generalize from a few examples, what causes what, how surprising each day really is, and what each individual student’s true rate is. The Bento Journal becomes a research instrument.

graph LR
    A[Generalization] --> B[Bayes Nets]
    B --> C[Conditional<br>Independence]
    C --> D[Causal<br>Bayes Nets]
    D --> E[Information<br>Theory]
    E --> F[Hierarchical<br>Bayes]

Chapters

• Bayesian Generalization
• Bayesian Networks
• Conditional Independence and d-Separation
• Causal Bayes Nets and the Do-Operator
• Information Theory: Surprise, Uncertainty, and the Collider
• Hierarchical Bayes

This project is generously funded by the Japanese Probabilistic Computing Consortium Association (JPCCA).