Value of every state by simulation
Press “Roll 1 trajectory” to sample one possible future from each state.
| start state | MC estimate | exact V* | |error| |
| Junk | — | — | — |
| Trying | — | — | — |
| Healthy | — | — | — |
trajectories per state: 0
Each click rolls out one trajectory from every state, following the policy and summing
discounted rewards G = Σ γkR. This MDP has no end state, so a
trajectory would run forever — but the discounted tail γH shrinks to ~0, so we sum a finite horizon of
80 steps and stop (the horizon grows as γ → 1). Each state's running
average (colored line) homes in on its exact value (dashed). The left panel animates the trajectory from Junk.